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Table 1 Comparison of observed prevalences of Your Disease Risk (YDR) risk factors with estimated U.S. population prevalences and observed relative risks of coronary heart disease with consensus–based relative risks among 55,802 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) participants, 1994–2004

From: Validation of a risk prediction tool for coronary heart disease in middle-aged women

Risk factor

Observed prevalence of risk factor in NHS

Estimated U.S. population prevalence

Observed unadjusted RR(95 % CI) in NHS

Observed multivariate RR(95 % CI) in NHS a

Consensus–based RR

N (%)

%

   

Overweight/Obesity

     

 BMI < 25 kg/m2 (Age < 60)

12,022 (44.3)

50.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

 BMI ≥ 25– <29 kg/m2 (Age < 60)

7480 (27.5)

20.0

1.21 (0.88–1.65)

1.02 (0.74–1.40)

2.25

 BMI ≥ 29 kg/m2 (Age < 60)

7664 (28.2)

30.0

2.10 (1.60–2.75)

1.47 (1.09–1.97)

5.00

 Waist ≤ 35in (Age ≥ 60)

24,381(85.1)

54.7

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

 Waist > 35in (Age ≥ 60)

4255 (14.9)

45.3

1.47 (1.24–1.74)

1.23 (1.03–1.46)

2.25

Smoking status

     

 Current smoker, ≥25 cig/day

1068 (1.9)

5.0

2.12 (1.50–2.98)

2.73 (1.92–3.89)

5.00

 Current smoker, 15–24 cig/day

2552 (4.6)

10.0

2.48 (1.99–3.09)

3.15 (2.50–3.97)

2.25

 Current smoker, ≤ 14 cig/day

2762 (5.0)

9.0

2.61 (2.12–3.21)

3.13 (2.51–3.89)

1.30

 Past smoker, quit <2 years ago

1078 (1.9)

6.0

1.80 (1.25–2.60)

1.84 (1.27–2.67)

1.30

 Past smoker, quit 2– < 10 years ago

5439 (9.8)

6.0

1.44 (1.18–1.76)

1.44 (1.17–1.76)

1.30

 Past smoker, quit 10– < 20 years ago

5934 (10.6)

6.0

1.10 (0.89–1.36)

1.13 (0.91–1.40)

1.00

 Past smoker, quit ≥20 years ago

11,673 (20.9)

10.0

1.11 (0.94–1.31)

1.09 (0.92–1.29)

1.00

 Never smoked

25,296 (45.3)

48.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Exposure to secondhand smoke (past and never smokers)b

     

 Almost never or occasionally exposed

37,614 (67.4)

90.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

 Regularly exposed

18,188 (32.6)

10.0

1.03 (0.91–1.16)

1.20 (1.04–1.37)

1.30

Multivitamin or B complex

     

 ≥5 times/week

23,497 (42.1)

60.0

1.01 (0.89–1.13)

1.02 (0.91–1.15)

0.80

 <5 times/week

32,305 (57.9)

40.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Physical activity

     

 ≥3 hours/week

11,870 (21.3)

19.0

0.79 (0.68–0.92)

0.85 (0.73–1.00)

0.55

 <3 hours/week

43,932 (78.7)

81.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

High blood pressurec

     

 Yes

14,227 (25.5)

27.5

2.05 (1.83–2.31)

1.51 (1.33–1.71)

2.25

 No

41,575 (74.5)

72.5

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Diabetes or high blood sugar

     

 Yes

2180 (3.9)

8.1

4.41 (3.72–5.22)

3.20 (2.67–3.83)

2.25

 No

53,622 (96.1)

91.9

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Total cholesterol leveld

     

 ≤159

3960(7.1)

14.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

 160–199

14,062 (25.2)

35.0

0.83 (0.63–1.09)

0.86 (0.66–1.13)

1.30

 200–239

26,693 (47.8)

30.0

1.15 (0.90–1.47)

0.98 (0.76–1.26)

2.25

 240–299

9542 (17.1)

15.0

1.48 (1.14–1.93)

1.26 (0.96–1.65)

5.00

 ≥300

1545 (2.8)

6.0

2.56 (1.83–3.58)

2.00 (1.43–2.82)

7.00

Family history of heart disease

     

 Yes

18,234 (32.7)

46.0

1.43 (1.27–1.60)

1.30 (1.15–1.46)

2.25

 No

37,568 (67.3)

54.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Fish

     

 ≥2 servings/week

13,961 (25.0)

35.0

0.91 (0.79–1.05)

0.90 (0.78–1.04)

0.55

 <2 servings/week

41,841 (75.0)

65.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Fruits and vegetables

     

 ≥5 servings/day

31,966 (57.3)

26.0

1.08 (0.96–1.21)

1.11 (0.98–1.26)

0.55

 <5 servings/day

23,836 (42.7)

74.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Foods containing whole grainse

     

 ≥3 servings/day

3605 (6.5)

11.0

0.83 (0.64–1.07)

0.79 (0.61–1.03)

0.55

 <3 servings/day

52,197 (93.5)

89.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Nuts

     

 ≥3 servings/week

13,077 (23.4)

12.0

1.06 (0.93–1.21)

0.99 (0.86–1.13)

0.80

 <3 servings/week

42,725 (76.6)

88.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Foods containing saturated fatf

     

 ≥2 servings/day

14,079 (25.2)

71.0

1.18 (1.03–1.34)

1.08 (0.95–1.24)

1.30

 <2 servings/day

41,723 (74.8)

29.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Foods containing trans fatg

     

 ≥5 servings/week

35,222 (63.1)

40.0

1.04 (0.92–1.18)

1.00 (0.89–1.14)

1.30

 <5 servings/week

20,580 (36.9)

60.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Foods containing unsaturatedh fat

     

 ≥5 servings/week

21,565 (38.7)

15.0

0.91 (0.80–1.02)

0.94 (0.83–1.06)

0.80

 <5 servings/week

34,237 (61.4)

85.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

Alcohol

     

 none

47,038 (84.3)

89.0

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

1.00 (REF)

 ≥1drink/day

8764 (15.7)

11.0

0.82 (0.69–0.97)

0.79 (0.66–0.94)

0.55

  1. REF reference group, RR relative risk, CI confidence interval, BMI Body Mass Index
  2. aMultivariate RRs are adjusted for all risk factors in table
  3. bObserved prevalences and estimated US population prevalences do not include current smokers
  4. cThose who indicated they were on high blood pressure medication were coded in the “yes” category
  5. dThose who indicated “high cholesterol” without specifying a specific level and those who were on statins were coded in the “200–239” category
  6. eExposed group defined as those who ate 3or more servings a day of oats, cereal, cooked cereal, dark bread, brown rice, other grains, bran, popcorn, oat bran or wheat germ. YDR whole grain question text, “Do you eat 3 or more servings of whole grains per day (wheat bread, whole grain pasta, brown rice, oatmeal, whole grain breakfast cereal, bran or popcorn)?
  7. fExposed group defined as those who ate 2 or more servings a day of whole milk, butter, cream cheese, lard, red meat, cottage cheese, and other cheese. YDR saturated fat question text, “Do you usually eat butter, lard, red meat, cheese, or whole milk 2 or more times per day?”
  8. gExposed group defined as those who ate 5 or more servings per week of margarine, vegetable shortening, fried food, store–bought baked goods (pies, sweet rolls, cakes, cookies, donuts, or brownies). YDR trans fat question text, “Do you eat stick margarine, vegetable shortening, store–bought baked goods (cookies, cakes, pies) or deep–fried fast food on most days?”
  9. hExposed group defined as those who ate 5 or more servings per week of olive oil or vegetable oil. YDR unsaturated fat question text, “Do you eat oil–based salad dressing or use liquid vegetable oil for cooking on most days?”
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