Table 2 Base-case and sensitivity analysis results
Base-case results (women aged 35–65 years N = 7,263,529 women) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AHPV | HC2 | Cobas 4800 | Difference AHPV versus HC2 | Difference AHPV versus Cobas 4800 | |
Number of procedures performed according to HPV detection technology and assuming cervical cancer screening coverage of 70% | |||||
HPV | 7,263,529 | 7,263,529 | 7,263,529 | – | – |
LBC | 544,765 | 835,306 | 900,678 | − 290,541 (− 35%) | − 355,913 (− 40%) |
Colposcopies | 169,476 | 321,175 | 320,641 | − 151,699 (− 47%) | − 151,165 (− 47%) |
Cost of performing the different procedures | |||||
HPV test cost | € 231,052,857 | € 231,052,857 | € 231,052,857 | – | – |
LBC cost | € 17,781,199 | € 27,264,382 | € 29,398,177 | € − 9,483,263 | € − 11,616,998 |
Colposcopy and biopsy cost | € 33,931,900 | € 64,270,348 | € 64,163,515 | € − 30,356,448 | € − 30,249,615 |
Total cost | € 282,747,877 | € 322,587,588 | € 324,614,490 | € − 39,839,711 | € − 41,866,613 |
Sensitivity analysis results | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base-case value | SA value | Cost form entry in screening until first colposcopy was performed | |||||
AHPV | HC2 | Cobas 4800 | Difference AHPV versus HC2 | Difference AHPV versus Cobas 4800 | |||
Target population (36.3% coverage in private service) | 7,263,529 women (Assuming a cervical cancer screening coverage of 70%) | 4,626,868 women (Assuming a cervical cancer screening coverage of 44.6%) | € 180,110,398 | € 205,488,294 | € 206,779,430 | € − 25,377,896 | € − 26,669,032 |
Transition probabilities (HPV positive) | |||||||
AHPV versus HC2 | AHPV: 7.5% | AHPV: 10.3% [13] | € 302,047,351 | € 356,017,663 | – | € − 53,970,312 | – |
HC2: 15.7% [13] | |||||||
HC2: 11.5% | AHPV: 7.2% [29] | € 280,680,076 | € 297,913,008 | – | € − 17,232,932 | – | |
HC2: 8.4% [29] | |||||||
AHPV versus Cobas 4800 | AHPV: 7.5% | AHPV: 15.3% [12] | € 336,510,697 | – | € 415,158,005 | – | € − 78,647,307 |
Cobas: 24.4% [12] | |||||||
Cobas: 12.4% | AHPV: 12.8% [30] | € 319,279,024 | – | € 341,214,134 | – | € − 21,935,110 | |
Cobas 14.6% [30] | |||||||
LBC, colposcopy and biopsy costs | Primary LBC: € 42.55 | LBC: € 50.56 [31] | € 295,564,919 | € 345,298,601 | € 347,822,501 | € − 49,733,682 | € − 52,257,582 |
Colposcopy + biopsy: € 200.11 | Colposcopy + biopsy: € 249.99 [31] | ||||||
LBC: € 18.31 [17] | € 258,447,168 | € 281,312,441 | € 281,789,684 | € − 22,865,273 | € − 23,342,515 | ||
Colposcopy + biopsy: € 134.64 [17] | |||||||