Table 2 Transition probabilities in each node of the decision three model
From: Performance of Aptima-HPV in the cervical cancer screening program of Portugal: a cost-analysis
Node | Transition probabilities (%) | References |
|---|---|---|
Hybrid Capture® 2 | ||
Probability (P) of a patient testing HPV+ | 25.1 | Cuzick et al. [18] Pista et al. [19] |
P of a patient testing HPV− | 74.9 | |
Cobas® 4800 | ||
Probability (P) of a patient testing HPV+ | 25.9 | Cuzick et al. [18] Pista et al. [19] |
P of a patient testing HPV− | 74.1 | |
Aptima® HPV | ||
Probability (P) of a patient testing HPV+ | 20.9 | Cuzick et al. [18] Pista et al. [19] |
P of a patient testing HPV− | 81 | |
Hybrid Capture® 2 | ||
P of an HPV + patient being infected by 16/18 serotypes | 22.57 | Clinical experts |
P of an HPV + patient being infected by other serotypes | 77.43 | |
Cobas® 4800 | ||
P of an HPV + patient being infected by 16/18 serotypes | 31.33 | Cuzick et al. [18] |
P of an HPV + patient being infected by other serotypes | 68.67 | |
Aptima® HPV | ||
P of an HPV+ patient being infected by 16/18 serotypes | 29.80 | Cuzick et al. [18] |
P of an HPV+ patient being infected by other serotypes | 70.20 | |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by 16/18 serotypes present a conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions | 66.88 | Clinical experts |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by 16/18 serotypes present a conclusive colposcopy with atypical lesions | 16.72 | |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by 16/18 serotypes present an inconclusive colposcopy | 16.40 | |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes present cytology ≥ ASC-US | 78.52 | Clinical experts |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes present cytology NILM | 21.48 | |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes and with cytology ASC-US/LSIL present a conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions | 71.91 | Clinical experts |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes and with cytology HSIL present a conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions | 3.79 | |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes and with cytology ≥ ASC-US present a conclusive colposcopy with atypical lesions | 7.90 | |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes and with cytology ≥ ASC-US present an inconclusive colposcopy | 16.40 | |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes and with cytology NILM present, after a year, a second HPV+ test | 10.00 | Clinical experts |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes and with cytology NILM present, after a year, a second HPV- test | 90.00 | |
P of a patient with a second HPV+ test present a conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions | 66.88 | Clinical experts |
P of a patient with a second HPV+ test present a conclusive colposcopy with atypical lesions | 16.72 | |
P of a patient with a second HPV+ test present an inconclusive colposcopy | 16.40 | |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by 16/18 serotypes with a conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions present, after a year, a second HPV + test | 10.00 | Clinical experts |
P of an HPV + patient infected by 16/18 serotypes with a conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions present, after a year, a second HPV− test | 90.00 | |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes with cytology ASCUS/LSIL and a conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions present, after a year, a second HPV+ test | 5.00 | Clinical experts |
P of an HPV + patient infected by other serotypes with cytology ASCUS/LSIL and a conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions present, after a year, a second HPV− test | 95.00 | |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes with cytology NILM and a conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions present, after a year, a second HPV+ test | 5.00 | Clinical experts |
P of an HPV+ patient infected by other serotypes with cytology NILM and a conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions present, after a year, a second HPV− test | 95.00 | |
P of a patient with a conclusive colposcopy with atypical lesions present CIN+ | 63.90 | Cuzick et al. [18] |
P of a patient with a conclusive colposcopy with atypical lesions present CIN− | 36.10 | |
P of a CIN− patient present, after a year, a second HPV+ test | 10.00 | Clinical experts |
P of a CIN- patient present, after a year, a second HPV− test | 90.00 | |
P of a patient with a second HPV+ test present a second conclusive colposcopy without atypical lesions | 71.06 | Clinical experts |
P of a patient with a second HPV+ test present a second conclusive colposcopy with atypical lesions | 12.54 | |
P of a patient with a second HPV+ test present a second inconclusive colposcopy | 16.40 | |
P of a patient with a second conclusive colposcopy with atypical lesions present CIN+ | 90.00 | Clinical experts |
P of a patient with a second conclusive colposcopy with atypical lesions present CIN− | 10.00 | |